Logistics and Sustainment for Distributed, Attritable Forces in Contested Environments

A Crucible Insight White Paper | May 2026

Abstract

This white paper assesses the logistics and sustainment posture required to support mosaic-aligned operational concepts (distributed, attritable, composable forces operating inside an adversary’s weapons engagement zone) against current United States capability. The analysis draws on Joint Publication 4-0 (July 2023), Field Manual 4-0 (August 2024), Marine Corps Doctrinal Publication 4 (March 2023), the Marine Corps Force Design Update (October 2025), the 2022 National Defense Strategy, the National Defense Industrial Strategy (January 2024), DoD additive manufacturing policy, three Government Accountability Office reports, four Congressional Research Service products, the Heritage Foundation TIDALWAVE series, and current open-source reporting on the United States munitions production ramp.

The paper applies a five-archetype maturity model overlaid on a four-layer capability stack. The five archetypes are Distributed Maritime Resupply, Expeditionary Advanced Base Support, Additive Manufacturing at the Point of Need, Autonomous and Unmanned Logistics Platforms, and Attritable-Mass Supply Chains. The four-layer capability stack comprises strategic mobility, theater sustainment, tactical and last-mile distribution, and the information backbone that integrates the other three.

Six evidence chapters develop the central finding that the doctrinal architecture for contested logistics is ahead of the underlying capability required to execute it. The chapters address doctrinal architecture ahead of underlying capability; distribution that cannot scale to theater demand; slow munitions production surge against stockpiles below wargame requirements; critical material supply chains under adversary control; structurally limited industrial base surge capacity; and allied integration as the most available near-term force multiplier.

Quantified findings include the United States 155mm artillery production tripling from 14,500 to 40,000 rounds per month over three years and $5 billion in supplemental funding, with the original October 2025 goal of 100,000 rounds per month pushed to mid-2026; the National Defense Stockpile carrying 99 materials in shortfall in fiscal year 2023 (a 167 percent increase from FY2019) with an $18.5 billion estimated closure cost; Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile inventory below 450 against congressional wargame requirements of 1,000 to 1,200; and an Indo-Pacific operational distance of approximately 6,000 nautical miles from continental United States production bases. The munitions production analysis identifies nitrocellulose as the current near-term binding constraint for 155mm scaling and clarifies that the M795 round uses either TNT or IMX-101, the latter produced at Holston Army Ammunition Plant under an $8.8 billion BAE Systems contract awarded December 2023.

The implications for leaders are segmented by stakeholder community (Office of the Secretary of Defense and Joint Staff, service leadership, Congress, and the defense industrial base) and presented as executive agendas, operating model changes, investment priorities, and governance actions. A Technical Appendix discloses scope, definitions, data sources, method, assumptions, limitations, and replication notes.

The paper concludes that the contested logistics challenge is structurally solvable but solvable only with policy choices that have not yet been made at the scale and tempo the operational concept requires. The decisions of the next two to three planning cycles are determinative.

Keywords

Contested logistics; mosaic warfare; sustainment; Joint Publication 4-0; FM 4-0; MCDP 4; Marine Corps Force Design; distributed maritime operations; expeditionary advanced base operations; stand-in forces; Medium Landing Ship; Combat Logistics Battalion; additive manufacturing; autonomous logistics platforms; 155mm artillery; IMX-101; precision-guided munitions; LRASM; National Defense Stockpile; critical materials; defense industrial base; Indo-Pacific Command; Pacific Deterrence Initiative; integrated deterrence; allied integration.

Citation

Crucible Insight. 2026. Sustaining the Mosaic: Logistics and Sustainment for Distributed, Attritable Forces in Contested Environments. White Paper. May.